I usually don’t pay much attention to the Academy Awards, but this year, an acquaintance of mine said “If Avatar wins Best Pic I will kick myself in the face. If I am unable to do so, I will train in leg flexibility until I am able to do so“. For that reason alone, I’m a little more interested than usual in the outcome this year, and as a result I couldn’t help noticing that this year’s Oscars have a few odd things in common with the 2008 elections.

1.) People of color will play a significant role in the outcome.

Avatar has aroused a lot of discussion about race and class around the world, and some people will be VERY upset if this non-white nominee wins. I don’t think Obama’s nomination caused suicidal tendencies though.

2.) A powerful woman may win, but an arrogant man in her past may impact the outcome.

Kathryn Bigelow probably deserves to win for Hurt Locker, but her arrogant ex-husband could easily muck things up for her.

3.) There may be a deranged man in a wheelchair in the audience.

Although Peter Sellers didn’t win, he was nominated for Best actor for his multiple roles in Dr Strangelove. The comparisons between Dick Cheney and Sellers’ character were inevitable when Cheney showed up at the inauguration in a wheelchair.

4.) In spite of presenting itself as a fair contest, a powerful group of insiders control the outcome.

This has always been true, but oddly the presidential campaigns have been a little more transparent since 2000, when only nine people elected the president, and not much fuss has been made since then. On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal points out that the Oscar nomination process is significantly flawed. And you can bet that Board of Governors makes a lot of phone calls this time of year.

5.) Gay men throw the best parties.

This is just a safe general rule. But the best Oscar parties I’ve been to were thrown by gay men, and this was also true of the best post-election parties I attended in 2008. For some reason most of my gay male friends were a LOT more engaged in politics in 2008 than in the past.